Demand forecasts
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Behind the meter Building and running the plant
The IEA Says It Is Not Clear That Onsite Generation Necessarily Promises Data Centers a Faster Route to Market at Scale, in the Context of a Supply Crunch for Gas Turbines
The IEA's executive summary says reliable onsite gas-fired power for "critical and variable data centre load" requires overbuilding onsite generation relative to demand, and that, with a supply crunch for gas turbines, "it is not clear that onsite generation necessarily promises a faster route to market for data centres at scale."
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Not Well Documented: Berkeley Lab's 2025 Update on United States Data Center Energy Use
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory's update of June 2026 estimates how much electricity data centers in the United States use, and could use by 2030. On how much of its grid connection a data center uses, it says the share "is not well documented."
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Connected for More Than They Use: Data Centers in AEMO's 2026 Electricity Statement of Opportunities
The Australian Energy Market Operator's 2026 Electricity Statement of Opportunities says that, to date, data centers in the National Electricity Market "have been operating with a relatively flat load typically well below the maximum connection capacity." It also counts the projects proposed and canceled, and forecasts their consumption.
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EIA Expects the Most Gas in Storage in a Decade, and Lowers Its Texas Load Growth Forecast: The August 2026 Outlook
In its August 2026 outlook, the U.S. Energy Information Administration expects more natural gas in storage ahead of winter than in any year since 2016. It also forecasts slower electricity load growth for Texas in 2027 than it did in July, beside a note that new data center projects there were paused.
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A Record Expected in 2027: EIA's Forecast of Natural Gas Burned for Power
In May 2026 the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecast that the power sector's natural gas use would hold level in the summer of 2026 and set a record in the summer of 2027, with new data centers and large manufacturing facilities among the reasons it gives for rising commercial demand.
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Assumed Flat Across the Day: EIA's Projection of Data Center Server Electricity to 2050
In its Annual Energy Outlook 2026, the U.S. Energy Information Administration projects that data center servers will use a growing share of commercial building electricity through 2050, and it assumes their demand is essentially flat across the hours of a day.
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Rapid and Large Swings in Demand: The IEA's April 2026 Release on Energy and AI
On April 16, 2026, the International Energy Agency said electricity demand from data centers in 2025 well outpaced the growth of global electricity demand. Its release also lists the physical bottlenecks it sees, and says the swings in an AI data center's demand can stretch the technical capabilities of onsite gas plants.
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If Demand Grew Faster: EIA's Scenario for Gas, Coal and Wholesale Prices in Texas
The U.S. Energy Information Administration's analysis of March 12, 2026 models electricity demand growing faster than its February forecast, with no more generating capacity than that forecast assumed. In the scenario the added generation would come primarily from natural gas, and the effect on wholesale prices would be most pronounced in Texas.
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Grid interconnection Grid constraints
Electricity Use Expected to Double: SPP's Board Approves Its 2025 Transmission Plan
On November 5, 2025, the Southwest Power Pool said its board had approved projects in its 2025 Integrated Transmission Plan. The release sets the plan beside a forecast that electricity use across its region is expected to double over the next decade, and names no line and no date for service.
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The End of Generally Flat Use: Berkeley Lab's 2024 Report on U.S. Data Center Energy
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory's report of December 2024 estimates the electricity U.S. data centers used from 2014 to 2023, and presents a range of scenarios out to 2028. It says the lack of data availability "significantly limits the analysis in this report."
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Grid interconnection Grid constraints
Lines to Import Power: ERCOT's Reliability Plan for the Permian Basin Region
In July 2024 ERCOT filed a plan for the transmission needed to serve forecast load in the Permian Basin region of West Texas. Its paper on the plan says significant lines will be needed to import power, and sets out the forecast load and cost estimates for options at different voltages.
