The U.S. Energy Information Administration, EIA, projects in its long-term outlook how much electricity data center servers will use in commercial buildings out to 2050. It also assumes how that use is spread across a day, and it assumes the shape is essentially flat. The agency set this out in a note of May 19, 2026, in its Today in Energy series, under the label "In-brief analysis" and the title "Data center server energy use grows across the commercial building stock." The projections come from its Annual Energy Outlook 2026, or AEO2026.
How much, by 2050
The projection is a range. "By 2050, server consumption alone reaches between 446 billion kilowatthours (BkWh) and 818 billion BkWh," the note says, and "The highest end of the range reflects faster growth in server power draw and installed stock in our High Electricity Demand case." The outlook projects server use "increasing more in standalone data centers than in all other data center rooms combined."
The note also gives a share. "Across all cases, servers alone accounted for an estimated 7% of commercial sector electricity consumption in 2025." By 2050 the projected share is 22% to 33% of commercial building electricity use, across the cases. A source line under a chart names two of them, the "Counterfactual Baseline and High Electricity Demand cases."
Which case a number comes from is part of what it says. A lender sizing demand from this note should ask for the case before the figure.
What the cases assume
The flat shape is an assumption. "Data center servers are assumed to have an end-use load shape that is essentially flat, meaning, in effect, that demand for electricity to power servers is consistent across all hours in a day." The note says the agency updated its commercial model for AEO2026 to report server use separately from the broader category of commercial computing.
The two cases part on efficiency. In the Counterfactual Baseline case of its projection, EIA assumes "that after 2040, servers will become increasingly efficient, resulting in a 10% reduction in average annual operational power draw every three years, above and beyond historical efficiency trends." Even so, "continued growth in server installations drives overall consumption growth." Use still rises. The High Electricity Demand case makes no such efficiency assumption. In that case the agency also assumes "that AI servers will account for a larger share of the installed stock of servers over time, relative to the Counterfactual Baseline case."
Cooling is part of the picture too. EIA assumes "space cooling requirements in data center floorspace are as much as 2.9 times as energy intensive as non-data center floorspace, on average." As much as, and on average. The note adds that service demand for space cooling "is sensitive to assumptions about population migration and the weather."
A flat load shape is an assumption of the model, not a measurement reported in this note. If it holds, server demand has no quiet hour, and a planner has to find the power for every one of them.
What the projections show for buildings
The note also projects the sector's electricity intensity. "The commercial sector's electricity intensity, measured in kilowatthours (kWh) of electricity consumed per square foot, exceeds the 2003 historical high of 14.9 kWh per square foot for the first time in 2031–2032." In the note's words, "Data center servers and associated end uses that support server operation, including space cooling and ventilation, increase commercial energy intensity in our AEO2026 projections."
The outlook has a cutoff. It "was released April 8, 2026, and in most cases, only considers laws and regulations as of December 2025. Any legislation, regulations, executive actions, and court rulings after that date are not included."
Sources
- U.S. Energy Information Administration. Data center server energy use grows across the commercial building stock (Today in Energy, in-brief analysis). 19 May 2026. energy agency