A Record Expected in 2027: EIA's Forecast of Natural Gas Burned for Power

On May 28, 2026, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, EIA, published an in-brief analysis on how much natural gas the country's power plants would burn in the summers of 2026 and 2027. Its title gives the answer in short, "Natural gas for power generation flat this summer, record high expected in 2027." The numbers come from the agency's May Short-Term Energy Outlook, which it shortens to STEO. "This summer" in the note is the summer of 2026, as seen in May, and its numbers for 2026 and 2027 are forecasts made then.

Expected level in 2026

For June through September 2026, EIA forecast that the power sector would burn an average of 43.7 Bcf/d, or billion cubic feet per day. The note says that forecast is "the same as in the summer of 2025," and 4% above the five-year summer average.

Demand, in the same forecast, was not level. EIA expected a 2% increase in overall U.S. electricity demand that summer, and still expected natural gas-fired generation "to be similar to last summer, primarily because of forecast increased generation from renewables." Renewables were the main reason given.

A record expected in 2027

The year after is different. EIA forecast that natural gas consumption for power generation "will increase 6% (2.4 Bcf/d) during the summer of 2027 to 46.1 Bcf/d, surpassing the previous record set in 2024 by 3%." A record, forecast.

Summer is when power use peaks, the note says, "because of cooling needs across all sectors." The record it forecasts "is primarily driven by increasing sales of electricity to the commercial and industrial sectors in the West South Central and Mid-Atlantic regions." Then it names data centers. EIA forecast demand in the commercial sector to grow nationally "because of the addition of new data centers and large manufacturing facilities," particularly in Texas and Virginia. "These facilities require large amounts of electricity for both operation and cooling."

In this forecast, new data centers are part of the commercial demand behind a record gas burn. A forecast that leans on new facilities arriving when expected carries their schedules with it.

Texas and the Mid-Atlantic

In the West South Central region, EIA expected commercial and industrial electricity demand "to rise 20% from the summer of 2025 to the summer of 2027," with industrial demand there also expected to rise in 2027 "because of growing electrification in the oil and natural gas sector and other industrial projects." It forecast that ERCOT, which it says manages the grid for most of Texas, "will meet the rising demand with more generation from both natural gas and solar." Between those two summers it expected ERCOT to increase natural gas generation 22%.

PJM, which the note says operates the grid across the Mid-Atlantic, has burned more natural gas for power over the past decade, as the region's demand rose and gas-fired generation became more competitive with coal. EIA expected that trend "to continue alongside increased commercial sector demand from computing facilities." In PJM, natural gas consumption for electricity generation was forecast to increase by 6% in the summer of 2027 relative to the summer of 2025, and solar generation was forecast to increase 32% over the same period. Both are forecast to rise.

EIA also expects renewables "will make up 25% of generation in 2027, compared with 21% in 2025."

Gas and solar both rise in this forecast, in ERCOT and in PJM, where the note names data center demand. For a developer, the question is less which fuel than which arrives in time.