The U.S. Energy Information Administration, EIA, publishes a Short-Term Energy Outlook, the STEO, and its press release dated August 11, 2026 gives the "Key takeaways" of the August edition. Its headline is about gas in storage before the winter. Further down, under electricity demand, it has two sentences on Texas, one of them on data centers. Parts of the release follow, not the whole.
Gas in storage before the winter
The agency "expects natural gas inventories will increase to 3,985 billion cubic feet (Bcf) in October, the most gas in inventories ahead of the winter heating season since 2016." Inventories here means gas held in storage. The release gives two reasons, "Increased natural gas production and reduced feedgas stemming from liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility maintenance".
The release quotes the agency's administrator, who says that "More natural gas in inventories in the fall season provides a cushion for increased heating-related consumption during the winter." It is the agency's forecast for October, made in August.
A lower price forecast, and a lower export forecast
The forecast for the gas price moved down. "EIA forecasts the Henry Hub spot price will average $2.87 per million British thermal units in 3Q26, 50 cents less than forecast last month." 3Q26 is the release's short form for the third quarter of 2026. "The decrease is driven by reduced LNG feedgas demand and robust natural gas production." It is a forecast, and it moved in a month.
For the same quarter the agency forecasts exports of liquefied natural gas averaging 16.5 Bcf per day, "a slight decrease from July's STEO because of maintenance at" one export facility. "The result is lower feedgas demand and increased storage in the South Central region." The same point also says that "EIA expects growth in U.S. LNG exports through 2027."
Electricity, Texas and a pause on data centers
Under its point on electricity demand the release has two sentences. The first says the governor of Texas "paused new Texas data center projects on August 3." In the second, "EIA forecasts a 6% electricity load growth rate for Texas in 2027 compared with 14% growth in the July STEO." The release sets the two sentences side by side and does not say that one caused the other.
The release does not say whether a pause on "new" projects reaches those already in line. For a developer with a Texas project already in the queue, that is the question it leaves open.
The release's next point is on generation. It says that "Natural gas-fired generation is forecast to increase as prices remain low, while coal generation declines." It also says that "EIA expects additional renewable energy capacity additions through 2027."
A gas plant's case rests on the machines and the connection to the grid too, and on those the release says nothing.
Sources
- U.S. Energy Information Administration. EIA expects highest natural gas inventories in a decade heading into winter (press release on the August 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook). 11 August 2026. energy agency