On September 25, 2026, the U.S. Energy Information Administration published an in-brief analysis in its series Today in Energy on the natural gas price at the Henry Hub over the summer. The note reports a price that came in lower than a year before, in a hot summer, and says what helped limit upward pressure on it. Parts of the note follow, not the whole.
A Lower Price in a Hot Summer
The Henry Hub natural gas spot price averaged $2.93 per million British thermal units from June through August, the agency reports, 6% less than in the same period of 2025. Prices were lower "despite exceptionally hot weather that increased electricity demand for air conditioning," and the note adds that "Natural gas-fired power plants often help meet higher demand during such periods." In July, according to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration that the note cites, the average temperature in the Lower 48 states was "the warmest ever for the month."
In the agency's words, "Increased renewable electricity generation, record natural gas production, and ample natural gas inventories helped limit upward pressure on prices." It adds that maintenance at liquefied natural gas terminals "moderated demand growth from that sector."
Solar, Wind and Gas-Fired Generation
The agency estimates that additions in renewable capacity and generation "reduced the amount of natural gas needed to meet higher summer electricity demand this year." Its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, the note says, indicates that "Solar generation increased by an estimated 19.4 billion kilowatthours (BkWh) compared with the same period in 2025, and wind generation increased by 9.3 BkWh." And, the note says, "Natural gas-fired generation increased by 7.5 BkWh."
Production and Storage
Natural gas supply, the note says, "has also remained strong, limiting support for higher Henry Hub prices this year." U.S. natural gas production has set "numerous monthly record highs in 2026 so far," and in its September outlook the agency expects dry natural gas production to set a record 111.2 Bcf/d (billion cubic feet per day) in 2026.
Working natural gas inventories entered the 2026 injection season, which begins in April, at 1,906 Bcf, 4% more than the previous five-year average. Injections in each month of the season through August were above their five-year averages, "aside from May." The note says this combination of strong production and sustained injections "has kept storage volumes at levels that provide a substantial supply cushion heading toward the winter heating season." In its August outlook, the agency forecast Lower 48 working inventories of 3,985 Bcf at the end of October, 5% more than the five-year average.
The heat raised electricity demand for air conditioning, and the Henry Hub price still averaged less than a year before. For a developer pricing gas-fired power, the note is a reminder that production and storage weigh on that price beside the weather.
Sources
- U.S. Energy Information Administration. Henry Hub natural gas prices this summer were 6% lower than last summer. 25 September 2026. energy agency