What Oil and Gas Executives Expect for Henry Hub: The Dallas Fed Energy Survey of September 2026

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas published the third-quarter results of its Dallas Fed Energy Survey on September 30, 2026. The bank conducts the survey every quarter "to obtain a timely assessment of energy activity among oil and gas firms located or headquartered in the Eleventh District," a district that "encompasses Texas, northern Louisiana and southern New Mexico." This time 125 energy firms responded, 83 of them in exploration and production and 42 in oilfield services, between September 16 and 24. Parts of the release follow, not the whole.

The Price They Expect

On average, respondents expect a Henry Hub natural gas price of $3.29 per million British thermal units at the end of 2026. Their forecasts for that date run from a low of $2.20 to a high of $8.00, by the survey's table. Asked about longer-term expectations, respondents on average said they anticipate $3.82 two years from now and $4.28 five years from now, by the survey's price forecasts.

For reference, the release says, Henry Hub spot prices averaged $2.97 per million British thermal units during the survey collection period.

These are expectations of the firms that produce and service the gas, not of the plants that burn it. For a developer weighing gas-fired power, they are one side's view of the fuel bill.

The Quarter Around Them

The survey's broadest measure, its business activity index, "remained positive but declined slightly from 46.1 in the second quarter to 38.8 in the third." Both oil and natural gas production rose in the quarter, according to the exploration and production executives, and "the natural gas production index climbed from 3.7 to 14.8." Cost pressures, the release says, "remained elevated across the sector," and "Supplier delivery times continued to lengthen."

In the Respondents' Comments

The release prints comments from respondents, noting that "Some comments have been edited for grammar and clarity." One exploration and production firm wrote that "The Iranian conflict continues to be the wild card in the industry." An oil and gas support services firm wrote that "Natural gas prices might well spike should current Asian and European liquefied natural gas storage deficits not offset a cold winter."

Another support services firm, writing that diesel prices continue to erode margins, added that "The only bright point is that demand from data center construction has caused some firms to reallocate away from the energy industry." It is a respondent's comment, not a finding of the survey.

One firm's bright point is another market's demand.