A Record Weekly Withdrawal: EIA Raises Its Near-Term Natural Gas Price Forecast After Winter Storm Fern

On February 10, 2026, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, EIA, put out a press release on its February Short-Term Energy Outlook, the STEO. It opens on a cold month. Natural gas prices rose sharply in January, the release says, averaging $7.72 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), as cold weather increased heating demand, reduced production and led to record storage withdrawals during Winter Storm Fern.

It carries its own limit near the end. EIA "completed STEO modeling and analysis for this report on February 5, 2026," and so the report "does not include the Petroleum Supply Monthly or Natural Gas Monthly data published on February 6, 2026."

A Storm and a Record Draw

The draw on storage set a record of its own. The drawdown for the week ending January 30, the release says, was the largest weekly net withdrawal recorded in the history of EIA's Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report.

Supply fell at the same time. Severe winter weather led to a 3% decline in U.S. natural gas production from December to January, by EIA's count, though the agency "expects most of this production to be back online in early February." Coal-fired plants increased generation to meet peak electricity demand during the cold, and "In January, power plants in the United States used 43 million short tons of coal, which is 10% higher than estimated in the January STEO." That increase, the release says, "was supported by a 7% rise in U.S. electricity consumption from December to January."

One cold month moved the price, the production and the storage together. For a data center that would run on its own gas plant, the question is who carries the cost of a January like this one.

The Forecast Moves

EIA now forecasts storage to end the withdrawal season in late March "at less than 1.9 trillion cubic feet." That is 8% below its previous forecasts, the release says, "prompting the forecast for the Henry Hub spot price for February and March to be 40% higher than last month's STEO." In the release's table of indicators, the Henry Hub price stands at $3.53 for 2025, with forecasts of $4.31 for 2026 and $4.38 for 2027.

The agency's Administrator, quoted in the release, says Winter Storm Fern "caused significant short-term pressure on natural gas markets," and expects higher prices in the near term to "increase drilling, resulting in higher production later this year and helping to replenish storage." Ultimately, the Administrator says, that will result in lower natural gas prices next year than the agency had forecast. The updated forecast "anticipates Henry Hub prices will average $4.30/MMBtu in 2026 and $4.40/MMBtu in 2027, 5% lower than" the agency's January forecast. "By the second half of 2026, EIA expects production to increase as new pipeline capacity comes online in the Permian Basin and producers raise drilling activity in response to higher prices earlier in the year."

Data Centers in the Forecast

Data centers enter on the demand side. "Higher electricity demand in the forecast reflects increased economic activity and growth in data centers, primarily in Texas and the mid-Atlantic regions," the release says. "EIA expects that most of this demand will be met by increased renewable electricity generation."

EIA expects most of the new demand to be met by renewable generation, in the same release that reports coal plants raising their output to meet peak demand in the cold. For a developer, the question to put to that expectation is what carries the load in a week like the one ending January 30.